Archive for Homebuilders
Home Builder Confidence Falls Again; Home Buyers Gain Leverage?
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Home builder confidence in the newly-built, single-family housing market is down for the third straight month this month.
After reaching a 3-year high just 90 days ago, the National Association of Homebuilders’ Housing Market Index is now at a multi-year low. It’s since dropped by almost half.
As an economic indicator, the HMI’s goal is to “take the pulse of the single-family housing market”. It surveys home builders across the country and asks them to report on 3 facets of their business:
- How are market conditions today?
- How do market conditions look 6 months from now?
- How is the prospective traffic of new buyers for new homes?
Responses are then collated, weighted, and presented as the Housing Market Index.
The August HMI reading of 13 is the lowest since March 2009.
Not surprisingly, the main reasons why HMI is down echo the main reasons why consumer confidence is down. Jobs growth continues to be weak; credit guidelines remain restrictive; and, home values are recovering slowly, pressured by distressed properties.
Builders report watching foot traffic stagnate and most likely won’t want to be stuck with excess inventory into the fall and winter months. For home buyers in Austin , drops in builder confidence like this can be an excellent negotiation tool.
Builders may be more likely to offer incentives and/or price reductions into an uncertain economy, as compared to a strong one. Furthermore, weakness in home building indirectly drags mortgage rates lower.
This one-two combination can make for cheaper homes with cheaper monthly payments.
Sagging Homebuilder Confidence Opens The Door For Good Deals
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Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly Housing Market Index.
The Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys. One measures current single-family sales; one measures projected single-family sales; and one measures traffic of prospective buyers.
All three surveys were down in July:
- Single-Family Sales : From 17 (June) to 15 (July)
- Single-Family Project : From 22 (June) to 21 (July)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : From 13 (June) to 10 (July)
The HMI’s July reading of 14 puts confidence at its lowest point since April 2009.
For home buyers in San Antonio , a drop in builder confidence could create an opportunity for negotiation.
Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that most builders were flush with home inventory, unable to find willing buyers. To help move product at that time, builders dropped prices and offered incentives including free upgrades. If confidence continues to sag going forward, home purchase deals of that nature may return — especially as the foreclosure market gets larger.
See, in the past, builders’ main competition for buyers were the existing home sellers. Today, builders compete with the existing home sellers and the banks with REO.
It’s a terrific time to be a home buyer, in other words — sellers are fighting for you. It’s no wonder sellers have little leverage anymore. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and affordability for homes is at an all-time high.
If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. The market looks ripe for good deals this summer.
